I'll post another update on my thoughts on the game, though I admittedly don't feel like I have as good of a grasp on the game as I did just before pre-merge but I think I've got the gist of it.
I think at this point (f8?), my front runners to win the game as as follows:
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Chad >> Jolanda >> Cochran > Mia > Debb > Carter >> Ken > Ralph
Chad's episode 15 confessional is giving me flashbacks to my times in Nepal. It seems he's going through the same dilemma I went through last season where I was doing the work but not receiving the credit. Chad's been really impressive to watch, he's recovered completely since his misfiring of taking out Mia (twice). He's got a ton of options and at this point, I'm not sure anyone suspects him. Will this cast be open-minded enough to allow a scooby-doo reveal? Will Chad do enough to make himself noticed and make enough of a cast? I hope so.
Jolanda is doing a very, very good job of playing both sides. Like Chad, I don't think as many people are on to her and her game as should be. I think she is in the best position to make it to the end. She might have put herself in a position where she will be taken to the end without needing to do much work from here on out. Every one seems to want to work with her and no one seems to be targeting her. For Jolanda's sake, I think she will need to make sure Chad isn't there, and probably also Cochran/Mia either.
Cochran/
Mia are in similar positions in this game where they have been figureheads (for lack of a better word) of their respective alliances. Chad of course has been pulling most of the strings for team Cochran, while I think team Mia is more of a collective effort between Mia/Ken/Jolanda. I don't think they are playing the best at the moment but if they make it to the end, they could have enough on their resume to take it -- either one of them. I don't think either makes it to the end, but wouldn't it be something if they made it together?
Debb/
Carter are also in similar positions in this game and I feel as though people see them as interchangeable. Debb seems to be playing a very similar game to her Nepal game and I think Carter is playing a more social/strategic game than last season, but there haven't been nearly (any?) immunity wins like last season. It remains to be seen if, from this point forward, Debb/Carter make the necessary moves to make it to the end and win this game. The problem with Debb/Carter I feel is that many people might feel they were just numbers in Cochran's pocket, which is true but I think it is more out of convenience for both sides. I think Debb/Carter are not receiving as much credit as they should, which could be a good thing for them in being taken to the finals. They may even have a good case, but it's just a matter of if the jury is receptive to hearing it and who they are against.
I wouldn't be surprised to see
Ken/
Ralph taken to the end as a goats. They could grab some boycott votes but I don't think either of them will win at this point in time. Obviously things can and probably will change by then.