The flip side to this and why it's a really good thing, is that I've had very little to do with pre-game stuff. I knew it was All-Stars, and it was Refuge II, and a rough idea of the Cast - but at the same time, some of those avatars popping up in the pick-em thread were just as "oh my, they are here??!" to me as they were to the players. I am almost like a super-lurker here so hings are fresh and toasty.Bear that in mind as you read, these "pre-games" for instance, are only written now after the pick-em, but before I've taken a peek at even a single confessional or PM.
Also with last Season in mind, I don't know all of these players as well as I'd like to. I'm even going to go look up cast lists for like, people from last Season and stuff
Excuse my biases in advance I'll try not be too fucky about them lol.Let's start with the Pinks. This tribe in general is a hot mess of pre-game connections. Ashley to Ted is the biggest most obvious one, but also all kinds of Ash to Vytas, Ash & Mia as hosts to everyone, somewhat Jolanda & Ken, Ken and a lot of people, and then on top of that add in all the Season bonds and returnee bonds and I don't know - a lot of people on this tribe know each other too well. So one obvious direction is that they all bond and cut out the outsiders. But they could very quickly turn on each other and look to lure in those outsiders. Do the outsiders even know that they are though?? idk!
Ashley - Ashley is gonna be controversial here one way or another. She is someone who people seem to love or hate and she brings out both the best and the worst in people. She is in a golden spot already and probs the best place in the game. Her and Ted are just completely inseparable right now. These are a pair that Skype each other on a daily basis just in general. Think like Catalie & I in Refuge 1 and if these idiots don't see that and break it up asap, it'll be far too later later to do. Her & Vytas is another solid pairing though maybe they have cooled off some lately? I don't keep up enough to know. The downside to these super tight bonds is that the likes of Mia & Katie are well aware of them and not afraid to let everyone know. The other thing Ashley has going for her in spades is some player-host relationships. A lot of the newer Season players will know Ashley as *the cute one* from their Season and maybe their fave - so for these types of players - the Carters - who aren't particularly engaged in the communities outside the board, she will be a friendly and familiar face to turn to, and a headstart like that compared to all these people just now getting to know each other could be a huge boost for her. She *should* do very well here indeed.
Winner? idk, don't melt down mid-game and cut off your haters before they turn it on you and it's do-able.
Chris - I don't know enough about Chris' second Season. I see him as a bit of a dark horse and I do know that he's capable and a challenge asset and has a cool head. Is he super eager to get going here or a big character? Not really either to best of my knowledge. He could surprise. Still solid player with a decent social game that won't fuck things up for himself or allies. We'll see.
Winner? Ehh, I don't know enough about him but I don't feel it.
Jolanda - Oooof I have plenty of time for Jolanda. Not sneaky, not schemey, loyal and always learning - she is a real hero-style player. I wonder if she'll be able to keep her head above the madness or if she'll get dragged into it. Her & Ken to hook up pls.
Winner? Definitely could be. If anything, her biggest danger is being too likely a winner and getting taken out for it.
Ken - "goes by Barbie"
- that line alone is worth casting him and Mia both. Him & Jolanda to hook up pls, and I kinda feel like Mia might fit well with these two too. Ken is the epitome of the social goddess who sucks at challenges. He will be just fine here no matter which way the tribe breaks down. Wow at thinking back to him in his first Season of Stranded, Ken has come so far and is a top top player these days. I am going to be quite interestedin seeing how the him/Ted dynamic is compared to what it used to be. I think they both have their friends on this tribe and theirs sets of friends won't necessarily see eye to eye but the Ken-Ted relationship might be the glue to keep two sides together. Or tries to 
Winner? See Jolanda. Biggest danger is being too obvious a Winner.
Kristina - another one I don't know well enough. I remember her being a little.. crazy?
I'm all about the crazy though. I feel like her lack of connections showed in the pick-em, but being lower end of the initial pick gives her great ammo to hook up now with Vytas who she saved and Stacey who saved her. Good God that's a trio of crazy right thur. But what is clear from the pick-em is that she needs to hit the ground running and play this game hard and fast right out of the gate or she'll just get left behind. If I was her, I'd be begging Jane right now to be saved. Except lol, she also was the one to send Jane to exile in the first place. Whoops 
Winner? I.. want to be nice but going on what I know, I think not.
Lisa - This is Voltage right? Voltage is very good, or at least, becoming very good. Ooh this is a bit I actually know from Last Season! Was in a sweet power spot and got taken out early for being too obvious about it right?? Well let's hope we get a nice blend of whatever got her into that place, and less of whatever mistakes allowed her to be flagged as such and taken out. I'll also say that going on first impressions of just that one thread, Lisa instantly gave me good vibes and if I was brand new to everyone here I probably would have picked her. So keep doing that and get everyone on the Lisa train already.
Winner? Not a hugely likely one but that kinda works in her favour. When the likely ones get taken out she can sneak in and steal the win
Mia - Ooooooooh. This could go a lot of ways. She has the experience as both player and host. She knows probably more about the entire cast than any one single other person. She has a few super tight relationships and at least a slight one with *I believe* every single person here. So these are all good reasons why people should boot Mia pronto if they are smart
And early-player Mia, I think would blow up over something stupid and give people the excuse and the urge to do just that. But she has matured as a gamer somewhat. But only somewhat. Sometimes she does blow up over stupid things still but just less frequently. So I think all in all, she is going to play a solid and probably entertaining game here - ready to scheme and flip as necessary - but I'm also going to predict the whole thing comes tumbling down over one stupid error somewhere along the way. She has played something like 20 games total but never once got a win. Something in Mia's game needs fixing and I don't know if she sees that or even cares. Could well be here just for the thrill of the chase.Winner? idts. She'll be up there and in the endgame and a big face, but for all her advantages, I still can't see her with the crown.
Ramona - I know very little about Ramona other than she was in a good spot at first last Season. Got the captaincy and the rest of it? Other than that I can say her first impression in the pick-em was decent, although maybe part of that was just her & Jolanda's Do-she-got-the-booty?-She-dooo matching avatars
Winner? I really have zero clue. Doesn't seem terrible?
Stacey - New to me but, omw the smack of desperation off of this girl in the pick
I wish she had been left to very-last-bar-refuge just to see her truly freaking out. But then as soon as she was she got super cocky about it? Idek what to make of that. Is she just kinda nuts? On the plus side I am certain she will be entertaining. Like, Papa bear levels of entertaining so that can only be a good thing.Winner? No. God no.
Ted 3.0 - Ted can win. He has allies pre-built thanks to his quick win in that challenge. Him & Ashley & Vytas & Mia & Ken & Jolanda? They are not like, all BFFs or anything but there is the bones of a tight pact in there that will suit Ted strongly. He is also very good in a challenge and at a quick glance, only Vytas will rival him in a lot of things. Just on that, in general terms this tribe is way better in challenges than Brown. He can be nice and he can be nasty and he can be frivolous and he can be serious. So h can appeal to a broad spectrum of players here. We aren't going to get the magnificence of the Ted Show again which is a pity, I think he might even shoot himself in the foot a little trying to play to please some other people with the Open-ID element. I can see say - Ashley and Mia blowing up on each other and ted *having* to stand by Ashley when it might not be the best for Ted. That's only a possibility though, and not something expected.
Winner? Definite chance, and not super obvious either which improves the chance. Depending who makes Jury and who gets cut early, he could well become the obvious Jury Tret that keeps winning immunities and gets cut for that.
Vytas - In many ways, the anti-Ted. Has a lot of the same connections and skills as Ted does, except put Vytas in that same Ashley v Mia scenario above and Vytas will cut a bitch in a heartbeat if he thinks it's his best move
Vytas will live at this board and get super 'into' the game, all the while claiming he's not into this at all. Amount of players who have Skyped me a question so far: 1. Guess who?? Winner? No. Vytas can win many games, and can dominate in a closed ID environment, and even here has a lot of allies on both tribes to help him get far - but playing as Vytas and assumedly reliving the same rep and habits, he will be hated even if he makes FTC. Only way he wins is with two complete tard-goats. Oh wait, let's say 5% chance of winning instead of a flat nope.
Refuge has just become a fully-formed tribe of eight so let's see if I can reboot this.